Betinget værdisætning af værdien af statistisk liv i Danmark

Abstract:
Many policy interventions, for instance those affecting traffic safety and air pollution, can affect the risk of people dying prematurely in a given period. Reductions in mortality risk are beneficial for individuals, and hence society as a whole. In order to ensure a consistent prioritising of public funds, such changes in mortality risk should be valued explicitly and equally in all sectors. In cost-benefit analyses (CBAs), this is commonly done applying a Value of Statistical Life (VSL) estimate. VSL is derived from people’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) to get a small reduction in mortality risk, and reflects public preferences for reduced mortality risk versus getting more of other goods.

In this working paper, we estimate the Danish VSL by means of a contingent valuation (CV) survey of a representative sample of the Danish population. We calculate the VSL based on their WTP for small changes in the risk of dying prematurely in a traffic accident in a given period of time. Respondents are asked to value two different risk reductions, allowing us to confirm that their WTP exhibits sensitivity to scope; in terms of stating higher WTP for larger mortality risk reduction than small ones. We find the VSL for the Danish population to be in the range DKK 26-36 million, with a central estimate of DKK 31 million. This corresponds well with the results from both previous Danish CV studies and international stated preference studies, but is considerably higher than the official Danish VSL of DKK 18 million currently used in most CBAs in Denmark. Therefore, applying the new VSL estimate means more policy interventions affecting mortality risk will pass the benefit-cost test.