Biodiversitet, Sundhed og Usikkerhed - En værdisætningsanalyse ved contingent ranking metoden

Abstract:

A contingent ranking study is carried out to estimate the value of biodiversity and health effects related to changes in the use of pesticides by the agricultural sector. The population of birds in the arable land is used as an indicator of biodiversity, while allergy is included as health attribute. With respect to biodiversity a fairly high annual willingness to pay (WTP) is found corresponding to between 213-230 DKK per household for a one percent increase in the population of birds. In the theoretical literature a distinction is made between changes in a (known) risk and uncertainty with respect to the size of the risk. To measure the size of respondents' aversion against uncertainty this distinction is included in the experiment by the inclusion of an uncertainty-interval around the expected change in number of allergy cases. Result suggests that WTP for the health attribute is up to 21-53% higher with uncertainty as compared to the WTP for changes in the health attribute that have a similar expected value, but where the effect is not uncertain.