Estimation af sundhedsudgifternes afhængighed af alder og afstand til død

Abstract:

An empirical analysis is presented separating the individual public health expenditures of the Danish population into the individual effects of age and proximity to death (reflecting terminal costs of dying). The analysis is based on micro data from the period 2000 to 2007, covering a random sample of 10 percent of the Danish population. Health expenditures include treatment in hospitals, subsidies to prescribed medication and health care provided by general practitioners and specialists. The results show that proximity to death has a significant impact on the health costs of the individual. The results are combined with a long term population forecast in order to predict the impact on public health expenditure of demographic change (cohort effects and the effect of improved life expectancy). When life expectancy increases, the terminal costs are postponed and the increases in health expenditure that follow from longer life expectancy are not as large as the increase in the number of elderly persons would suggest. This is referred to as “healthy ageing”. Based on the empirical estimates healthy aging is expected to reduce the impact of increased life expectancy on real health expenditures by 50 percent compared to a situation without healthy ageing.